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5SECONDMODEL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE UNDERWRITING

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Back-of-the-napkin commercial real estate underwriting, in seconds.

5 Second Model · back-of-the-napkin underwriting

 

 

 

Vacant Retail Box

Buy the dark box, re-tenant it, hold it, sell it. Does the spread cover the work?

Buying a dark retail box and re-tenanting it is a development deal wearing an acquisition’s clothes. You pay for the building, then you pay again for tenant improvements, landlord work, a leasing commission and months of carrying an empty shell before rent starts. This model runs the whole sequence and reports the number that decides it: yield on cost against the exit cap. That spread is where a conversion makes money, because you are manufacturing a stabilized asset for less than one costs to buy.

Statement of assumptions & returnsAll figures USD · annual unless noted · click any number to type it exactly

Levered IRR / Equity multiple

--

Equity out at close, then rent, then the sale

What it costs to get open

Purchase price--
Closing costs--
Tenant improvement allowance--
Landlord work--
Leasing broker fee--
Capital work funded at closing--
Total project cost--
Loan fee--
Cost per SF--
Loan proceeds--
Equity required--

Sources and uses

Deal metrics

Yield by year

Return on total cost as the deal stabilizes, against the cap rate you exit at

What the box still needs

Put each item in the year you will actually write the cheque. Set the year to zero and it is funded at closing, into your basis and your loan. Set it to year six and it hits that year's cash flow instead — which is where it belongs if the roof has six years left in it. The timing matters as much as the number: the same $104,000 roof costs you far less in year eight than at closing, and a fifteen-year lease means it is your cheque either way.

Does the spread work

Stabilized NOI--
Yield on cost--
Exit cap rate--
Development spread--
Stabilized DSCR--
Year-one debt service--

The exit

Forward NOI at sale--
Sale price at exit cap--
Less cost of sale and loan payoff--
Net proceeds to you--
Total profit over the hold--
Unlevered IRR--
Net present value--

Debt service coverage by year

Amortization schedule

Read the two together. Coverage tells you whether each year clears the lender’s floor; the schedule tells you what you still owe on the day you sell. An interest-only period flatters the first and does nothing for the second — the balance sits exactly where it started.

Return sensitivity

Levered IRR across achieved rent and exit cap. Your case is outlined.

Scenario analysis

Each column is the whole model re-run, not an adjustment to the base case.

What moves the return most

Points of IRR between the low and high case for each driver, ranked

Where this deal breaks

Solved against your own discount rate. Everything else held at your assumptions.

This is the part a chat window cannot do. The table above is solved, not estimated — the model re-runs itself hundreds of times to find the exact rent and exit cap at which this deal stops clearing your hurdle. Those two numbers are what you take into a negotiation: not "the IRR is 11%", but "we lose money below $13.40 a foot".
The number that matters most is the development spread — yield on cost minus exit cap. Under about 100 bps there is no room for the schedule to slip, and it always slips.
Where this is rough: TI, landlord work and commissions are funded at closing rather than drawn over the build-out, and the loan amortizes from day one with no interest reserve. Selling in the year a lease expires is optimistic — a buyer will price rollover risk into the cap.

Common questions

How do I underwrite subdividing an old pharmacy or drugstore box?
Model each demised suite as its own tenant with its own rent, term and TI, and add the demising cost — walls, separate utilities, restrooms, storefronts — to landlord work. A 13,000 SF box split into three suites usually rents at a higher blended rate per foot but costs more to deliver and takes longer to fill. Use the Strip Plaza model once you have more than one tenant.
What development spread do I need on a conversion?
Yield on cost above the exit cap is the whole game. Under about 100 basis points there is not enough room for the schedule to slip, and it always slips.
Should roof replacement go in the basis or the cash flow?
It depends when you spend it. Anything the tenant will demand before occupancy belongs in the basis at closing. A roof with six years of life left is a capital event in year six, and this model lets you place it in the year you will actually write the cheque.
Cap Rate Loan Sizing Vacant Retail Box Value-Add Strip Plaza contact@5secondmodel.com New York, NY

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These are screening tools. They round, they assume, and they leave out capital expenditure, income tax, reserves and everything else that matters at the diligence stage. Directionally right is the goal — verify before you sign. Nothing here is investment, tax or legal advice. Every calculation runs in your browser; no data is sent anywhere. © 2026 5 Second Model · New York, NY.